Most relevant consequences of electric cars.

December 03, 2023

 

Introduction

This article refers to cars only.

CO2 emissions in Spain, due to internal combustion cars (ICV), have increased by 16% from 2000 to 2019. They are the cause of health problems in cities and contribute to climate change. On the other hand, the intensive use of fossil fuels would lead to a depletion of non-renewable energy sources over a historical period of time.

Countries are making great efforts to limit the use of fossil fuels and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The electric car (battery electric car, BEV, plug-in hybrid, HPEV, fuel cell electric car, PCEV) is a necessary collaborator. The replacement of the ICV by the electric car (EV) will cause important transformations in the lives of users, automobile factories, energy enterprises, public authorities and society as a whole.

Electric cars are necessary collaborators

The EU has been lowering the legal limit on the proportion of greenhouse gases (GHG) that cars can emit into the atmosphere. The limit set by the EU for new cars of each brand or pool of brands for the entire park is 59 grCO2/km in 2030. To measure it, the World Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) is applied. This objective cannot be achieved without a significant contribution from the EV.

The EV can also be useful to continue using cars when fossil fuels are a scarce and expensive good.

Internal combustion cars (ICV) must be replaced by electric cars by law. They cannot be sold after 2035.

Electric cars value

The electric cars have a lower value than the internal combustion cars, since they achieves the basic functions with a higher cost of many of the technical functions (see table). On top of their higher price we must add the need to have a parking space to be able to recharge the car without restrictions. If the parking space does not have the necessary electrical mains, the cost of a charger and its installation will have to be added, which usually does not go below €2,000.

It is very difficult to make a 10-year return of the investment calculation for the EV, due to the uncertainty of energy costs, the km that will be traveled in those years and the real life of the batteries.

Usage functions are also less valuable due to the time required to recharge the batteries and the uncertainty in the car's autonomy. 

The sensory functions of the VE have greater value than those of a ICV. An EV is more comfortable to drive, at low speeds it is quieter and during use it emits little or no CO2. It gives the owner an image of modernity and concern for the environment. That is not valid per all the countries like Italy, Spain and USA. BVE don'like them for cultural reasons.

Due to its high price, the scarcity of “hydro stations”, its lower performance and the handling of hydrogen, the fuel cell car is not considered in this article. It produces the electricity by itself. The recharge time is comparable to the ICV.

Table: Features of different trechnologies cars.

All of them are of de same mark and model

	Renault Mègane E-Tech. (BEV)	Renault Mègane E-Tech. Line. (PHEV)	Renault Mègane Zen Fast track.  (ICV)
Máxim speed, km/h	150	135/175	205
0-100kM/h, seg	10	9,4	9.4
Engine power, kW	-	67	103
Motor power, kW	96	93	-
Total power, kW	96	117	103
Máxim torque, Nm	250	148/205	260
Engine volume, cm3	-	1600	1333
Battery capacity, kWh	40	9,5
Autonomy, km	300 (WLTP)	50  (WLTP)	833
Dimensions, mm	4210x1770x1,51	4359x1814x1447	4359x1814x1447
Trunk, lit	298	384	384
Weight, Kg	1620	1670	1450 (estimated)
Fuel	Electricity	Gas+Electr.	Gas
Recharge time, hours	6,5 (7kW)	5 (7kW)	5…10 (min)
Lit gas./100km (WLTP)	1,7 (15,8 kWh)	1,2/2,4/5,2	6
gr/km - CO2 (WLTP)	-	28	137
Average price, EUR	35.200	34.200	25.528

Some transformations that the EV entails.

For manufacturers:

1. From heat engines and mechanical systems to a mechatronic system.

2. From having known suppliers of known components to new suppliers of new components.

3. From reducing the components per car to a minimum, to controlling a greater number of components and subassemblies.

4. Face greater financial needs due to the price of subassemblies and components and the need for investments.

5. Implement new and more complex verification, validation and qualification systems.

6. Hire competent personnel in new technologies.

7. Change the internal and external logistics of the factory.

8. Transform after-sales services.

9. Carry out reengineering of production processes.

10. Prepare for digitaiization.

For the user

1. Pay a higher price to obtain equal or lower value. Figure 1. The batteries capacity evoluted from 24 kWh (2012) to 40 kWh (2023).

2. In case of a longer or shorter trip, you have to know in advance the location of all public fast charging facilities that may be needed and plan the timing of their use. The autonomy of cars, within each category (mini, medium, large, luxury) is progressing slowly and remains undetermined.

3. It has been stated that, if recharging is intelligent, the current electrical grid is capable of powering the entire current fleet of cars, once they are electric. It is not certain that this will happen in every car-parking that exists in the buildings. Complications may arise with the electrical power available in some car-parkings.

4. Planning of recharges before and after using the car.

For electrical companies

1. Replace fossil fuel plants with flow energies (renewable) and energy storage means. Everything in accordance with the “National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan”, PNIEC). The amount of CO2 that originates the electric car depends (among other things) on the energy mix of the network.

2. Implement intelligent network management to supply the energy that the EV fleet will need, once the replacement of the ICV  is completed.

Figure 1. Evolution of EV and ICV prices.

For goverments:

All the transformations are detailed in the PENIEC and in the “Sustainable Mobility Law” (LMS). The term "mobility" identifies the need and the possibility of moving from one place to another, while "transport" is the tool used to make this need a reality.

The PNIEC indicates that the total investment associated with the penetration of electric cars will be around €114,407 million, approximately one third of the General State Budget for one year. The estimated public financial support for the development of this measure in the period 2021-2025, (with Next Generation EU funds) amounts to €2,000 M to promote the electrification of light vehicles (cars). The investment necessary to implement the LMS is enormous and incalculable. It changes the model of society and it will take a long time.

For society:

1. The current gas stations must be transformed into electric stations. The waiting time before being able to charge the car can be indeterminate.

2. We must move from the concepts “Transport” and “Traffic” to the concept “Sustainable Mobility”

3. Why a Sustainable Mobility Law and why now?

  “The ways of providing mobility solutions to citizens must be flexible to be able to adapt to the environment in which needs arise, with solutions that can be innovative or be effective as an alternative to the private car.”

4. The purpose of the regulations is that the use of private cars – electric or not – to decrease in Europe. To achieve this, there is the gradual introduction of the digitalization of transport.

5. The consequences of the application of the Sustainable Mobility Law would be less freedom, less mobility and enormous investments in money and energy. The “promotion of 15 minutes cities” goes in that direction. The Sustainable Mobility Law is a revolution in our current way of life that must be completed by 2050.

Points requiring attention

1. Fischer & Pry examined a large number of technological substitutions. They concluded that, once a new technology has captured 5% of the market, its diffusion will continue until it completely replaces the previous technology. In figure 2 you can see that the Market Share (PdM) of electric cars (BEV+HPEV) as a function of time is increasing rapidly. Observing the extrapolation of the curve, we can think that a PdM of 25% could be reached in 2026. It would be daring to go further.

2. It is under discussion whether and to what extent, the “fast charging” of  batteries can reduce their life. 

3. An increase in the purchase or rental price of car-parking rooms in buildings cannot be ruled out.

Figure 2. PDM (Market Share) of BEV+HPEV. 

 

4. The current number of public charging facilities may be sufficient as long as the PdM of the electric car is as of the current one (what is good for one is not good for all). When all cars are to be electric, it is easy to imagine queues at the “electrolineras”.

5. When replacing the ICV with the EV, bottlenecks and changes in the environment may appear: 

1. Economic and geopolitical crises.
2. Market intervention by the government.  
3. The disorientation of the market and manufacturers.
4. Problems with the supply of new raw materials and components. 
5. The sufficiency of the electrical network and its flexibility.
6. The number of charging stations.
7. Notable increase in fossil fuel prices.

6. If consumers have chosen the “mini” or “medium” EV category that satisfied their basic needs, the price of the car, the charging time and the environmental impact would be lower. 

Today the user prefers large SUV cars instead. That implies large batteries and high prices. On the other side, a large battery implies less anxiety about autonomy.

7. Without a high participation of renewable energies in the global electrical network, the electric car would only eliminate CO2 emissions in cities.

8. The manufacture of the VEB produces 70% more greenhouse gas emissions than an ICV. When a 240 HP electric SUV has traveled 200,000 km, without changing battery, its carbon footprint will be 15 to 30% lower than a ICV, depending on the energy mix of the electrical grid. 30% would be achieved with totally renewable electrical energy. 

Key aspects

1. ICV will be replaced by EV. Probably in 2026 it will reach 25% of PdM in Spain.

2. The higher price, the drawbacks of the EV, the digitalization of transportation and the LMS will decrease the total number of cars sold (already all of them electric) and therefore cars in circulation and trips. 

3. The car is a key economic sector due to its contribution to employment and added value.

4. Digitalization will allow processes to be optimized through:

• The organization of shared cars or journeys.
• Making public transport more attractive and efficient, providing information about prices, schedules, routes, etc.
• We must distinguish between the GHG emission from cars locally and the emission they produce throughout their life cycle globally.

6. A disruptive innovation may appear in battery technology that increases range or reduces cost drastically. There is a lot of research going on.